Anybody who follows international politics of West – East divide of the world knows that these political blocks do not rumble over nothing. There is always a target and Mammonous spoils somewhere to pounce on. Most at times, the main object of commotion is not publicly made known. Putin over the years has shown that he is not stupid and usually steps out for a target. But on this Ukrainian issue, his objectives are hazy and his target a secret. I don’t believe that Ukraine is really his final target. It may be part of it but definitely not the ultimate. Everybody and Putin himself knows that Ukraine is not joining NATO anytime soon and the likelyhood of them joining at all is slim, so what is the rumble about?
Putin knows very well even before he made his first move that Russian economy will take a hit, plunge and cave in to Western sanctions and its allies. He knows he can cause harm to the Ukrainians but he will never win, conquer or annex the whole country. He knows that Russian monolithic economy relies heavily on its gas supply to the EU. He knows that taking the plug off of the gas supply to the EU will hurt Russia more than the EU. European Union has 3 months gas reserve which is enough time for them to increase their import from Algeria, Norway and possibly import from other fronts like Egypt, Nigeria and the USA. Whichever way or angle one tends to look at Russian situation in this invasion, it looks a-lose-lose situation for them.
But, Putin is not a stupid man. He knows all these disadvantages and is very much aware of the decimation of their economy but he is pressing ahead irregardless and the question is why? The ‘why’ is circled in the dark, possibly only in the mind of Putin and few of his most trusted allies within Russia. In a game someone is aware of the disadvantageous consequences in a move yet presses on to soaking it, there must be a bigger target that will compensate in the long run. Nord stream 2 gas project has just been halted by Germany and most of German nuclear energy plants are shut down or in the process of being shut down. There is going to be energy crisis in the world especially if winter extends. Nigeria is naturally in a position to take advantage of the situation and make money but lack of capacity will not allow them maximize the opportunity. Imo state alone has about 50% of all the natural gas deposits in Nigeria yet produces so little.
Unraveling Putin’s interest will make a lot of things about this confrontation clearer including how long it may take, what and who will likely get involved and if it has the possibility of being snowballed into world war 3. China is watching the development closely to see how the US under President Biden handles the situation. If it turns out to be as shabbily handled like Afghanistan pull out and any perception of weakness could trigger the Taiwan confrontation. The Taiwan issue added to the ongoing Ukrainian invasion, will impact the globe negatively and could ultimately led to world war 3. The West also appears to desire Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ‘why’ behind that is equally obscured. Putin has taken what appears as irretrievable steps and we can only watch what comes next.
Obi Ebuka Onochie